Anyone who has ever started a business knows that the path to success is seldom straight or easy. There are countless pitfalls and distractions that can lead you astray, and it’s often difficult to know which decision is the right one. For startups in particular, one of the most dangerous traps is confirmation bias.
Confirmation Bias
What is confirmation bias? It’s the tendency to seek out information that confirms your existing beliefs, while ignoring or downplaying evidence to the contrary. In other words, it’s a form of self-deception. And when it comes to growing a startup, confirmation bias can be lethal.
Let’s say you’ve developed a new product or service, and you’re convinced it’s going to be a huge hit. You’ve done your market research, and everything points to massive demand for what you’re offering. So far, so good, right? Not necessarily.
The problem with confirmation bias is that it leads you to cherry-pick data that supports your preconceived notions, while ignoring anything that contradicts them. As a result, you may end up making bad decisions based on faulty information.
For example, let’s say you’re planning to launch your product in the United States. You look at data from other successful startups and conclude that the U.S. market is ripe for your product. But what you don’t realize is that those other startups were targeting specific niche markets within the U.S., while your product is aimed at a much broader audience. As a result, your product may flop when it launches because you didn’t take into account the size and scope of the market you’re entering.
Confirmation bias can also lead you to make unrealistic assumptions about your potential customers. For instance, let’s say you’re launching a new dating app and you assume that everyone who uses it will be single and looking for a relationship. But what if there are people who use the app who are already in relationships? Or people who only use it to chat with friends? Or people who use it for business networking? Your assumption about your customer base may be completely off-base, leading you to make decisions that are ultimately counterproductive.
Conclusion
Product market fit is essential for startups, but it’s not always easy to achieve. One of the biggest obstacles standing in your way is confirmation bias. This tendency to seek out information that confirms your existing beliefs can distort your judgement and lead you astray. What’s more, it can cause you to make bad decisions based on faulty information.
If you want to avoid falling victim to confirmation bias, it’s important to question your assumptions and challenge your beliefs at every turn. Only by taking an objective look at the data can you make informed decisions about how best to grow your startup. Otherwise, you risk making decisions that could ultimately doom your business to failure
